MAIN FINDINGS:
—Most non-European migrants aren’t even listed as refugees or asylum seekers.
—The overwhelming majority of migrants were never women or children fleeing from war, but male economic migrants.
—The national origins of the migrants were never in line with conflict zones to begin with.
—Non-European immigration to the EU has also only increased since 2016 rather than tapering off after the Syrian civil war died down.
It is claimed occasionally, either by europhobic third-worlders using the excuse as pretext, or by mistaken Groypers, that mass immigration to the west is its fault for starting wars in the middle east and displacing its local population [109, 110, & 111].
This is completely false. They're here purely as a function of the state allowing them to be here. Even if they were all fleeing from a hell on earth where everybody is constantly raping and torturing each other, the number of them who end up in Europe would be determined exclusively by whether we sink the ships they send our way.
Asylum mostly isn’t even a listed reason in government statistics for the non-EU migration to the UK [112, p.75; & 113]:
Of the ‘refugees’ living in Sweden, 79% have also vacationed in the country they ‘fled’ from [114 & 115].
Age & Sex:
The overwhelming majority of migrants were never women or children fleeing from war, but adult male economic migrants. The 2023/2023 Frontex risk analysis report found that only 11.1% of illegal boat migrants coming to the EU were female while only 18.02% were under 18 and only 6.7% crossing by land were female [116, p.15 & 17]. Those listed as being children are also mostly fraudulent:
The Swedish national forensic medicine agency (Rättsmedicinalverket) tested of 7,858 purported “child” migrants, and the results suggested that 84% of these were over 18 [117] and bone tests done in France found 80% of migrant minors to actually be adults [118]. A Swedish dental expert was later fined $50,000 for exposing adult migrants masquerading as children [119 & 120].
In Great Britain, 92% of undocumented asylum-seeking “children” in 2016 were male, and 76% reported being aged 16 or 17 rather than following any believable age distribution [121, p.17 & 18]. This highly-suspect age distribution is reflected in more formal tests of asylum fraud. UK Home Office data from 2007 to 2021 investigating the ages of 15,860 purported "child" asylum seekers found 7,816 (49.3%) of them to be over the age of 18; this figure has also been worsening over time, with the fraud rate being 29% in 2007 and 66% as of 2021 [122].
A Belgian government agency found 69% of tested migrant ‘minors’ to actually be adults [123].
National Origin:
For those who don’t remember, the pretext [see Documenting The Narrative] for throwing open Europe’s borders in 2015 was the ongoing Syrian civil war, with the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) seizing large Swathes of Territory in 2014 before being territorially defeated at the battle of Raqqa by late 2017, with the conflict having produced 300,000 fatalities by UN estimates as of 2022 [99]. Contrary to this pretext however, those displaced by war did not have their national origin reflected among the illegal immigrants and asylum applicants inflicted upon Europe. By the 2015 UNHCR Global Trends report [100, annex table 2], over 50% of the refugees under the UN mandate were displaced from the top 3 leading countries: Syria (4,850,792), Afghanistan (2,662,954), and Somalia (1,123,022); only 261,107 came from Iraq. This should set a floor for what what proportion of the migrants we expect to be marked as Syrian for two reasons:
Proximity. When somebody is displaced by conflict, their concern is finding the immediate nearest safe place that they can go, not to go shopping for which country will offer the most generous benefits Refugee status claimants. Among those affected by conflict in Syria, 6,563,462 were internally displaced elsewhere in the country while only 4,850,792 went anywhere else. Of these 4,850,792 who fled internationally, 2.2 million moved to Turkey, 1.1 million moved to Lebanon, and 633,000 moved to Jordan [77]. The normal pattern for refugee crisis situations like these is for the migration burden to slowly radiate outwards from its point of origin, especially to culturally-similar neighboring countries which share a language in the cases where people flee internationally. Europe’s proximity to Syria compared to the other major world sources of migration should thus floor Syria’s share of EU asylum claimants at Syria’s share of the world’s Refugee population.
Asylum fraud. As we’ve seen from the statistics on age and sex, it is the norm that the books are cooked to paint the influx of foreigners in a positive light. It is much easier to test the age of a grown man than it is to prove the non-Syrian origin of brown people who speak Arabic and claim that their documents were lost in the chaos of conflict. Such difficulty gives us every reason to expect traits like national origin to yield even more fraud than characteristics like age. In 2015, 97% of processed ‘Syrian’ applicants were given refugee status in the first decision round [101, p.10]. Asylum fraud is invited anywhere that any characteristic is treated with such leniency. Take homosexuality for example. 98% of people who claim to be gay while applying for asylum get to be positively classified as having “credible fear” and to be allowed to settle within the United States [102], and law groups instruct clients to falsely claim homosexuality as a result [103].
Given this then, the adjacent country which actually has large-scale problems should make up a supermajority of recorded asylum claimants, yes? In 2015, Syria had a share of only 29%, and Afghanistan made up 15% while Iraq made up 10% [101, p.15]. That ‘Iraqis’ had a 10% share despite being much more severely dwarfed by Syria as an actual source of refugees (261,107 VS 4,850,792) is itself a red flag of people taking advantage of the pretext that Iraq was under ISIS rule, and we should expect the Syrian share to be similarly inflated.
The conflict has only died down in the years since 2015. With the decrease in the actual refugee burden, we should expect the representation of legitimate refugees among migrant claimants to have only declined. This is a best case scenario of official asylum claimants at the height of a major conflict period. In terms of citizenship and illegal immigration, it’s worse.
Let’s first address the elephant in the room. Yearly non-EU migration was actually higher in 2019 than 2015 [106, p.2]:
Note that Great Britain officially left the EU on the 31st of January in 2020 [107]; aside from the sudden drop from 2019 to 2020 due to British figures no longer being included with the rest of Europe, there was a continuous rise from 2017-2021. We can reasonably infer that the intensity of migration remains higher than it was in 2015. To date, 5.3% of the population of the EU consists of non-EU citizens [106].
This 5.3% citizenship figure undersells the scale of problem too. EU member states granted 827,300 citizenships in 2021 [108]. The 30 top nationalities of origin were as follows [108, p.8]:
Only 15% (120,400) of these were granted to people with prior citizenships in other EU countries [108, p.6]. Considering naturalizations of people with pre-existing EU citizenships taken together with those granted to citizens of White countries without EU membership (Albania at 32,300; Romania at 28,600; Ukraine at 18,200; Russia at 17,300; and Great Britain at 10,600) [108, p.8], we can infer that roughly 599,900 (72.5%) of the 827,300 citizenships were granted to people of non-European ancestry. The volume of these naturalizations hasn’t changed appreciably since 2016 either [108, p.2]:
In 2017, the continental origins of illegal immigrants arriving in the EU were as follows [104, p.15]:
Among those arriving on Italian shores from January 2022 to June 2023 by boat, a UNHCR report [105] estimated the main locations of origin to be “Côte d'Ivoire (13%), Guinea (12%), Egypt (11%), Bangladesh (10%), Pakistan (9%), Tunisia (7%), Syrian Arab Republic (6%), Burkina Faso (6%), Cameroon (4%) and Mali (3%)” and found over 70% of the illegal migrants to be adult men.
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Good post, but careful with the age testing interpretation. The government presumably targets people with dubious age for testing, not a random sample. Because of this selection bias, the tested persons will tend to have a very high rate of fraud.
Charles, your x account is/was a treasure trove of good ideas and observations. Do you plan to compile a book or some document where you would bring them all together?